Republican strategist Karl Rove predicted on Tuesday that former President Trump would win the White House with either a Georgia, Pennsylvania or Michigan victory.

During a Fox News appearance, Rove said that Arizona and North Carolina seem to be leaning Trump’s way, but added the latter state “has a very large group of unaffiliated, independent voters. We don’t know exactly how they are voting.” 

“But it’s gonna be close because as you say, If he wins Georgia, the race is over,” Rove said. “If he wins Pennsylvania and loses Georgia, the race is over, because if he does take Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, it gets him within basically either — 15 or 19 state electoral votes; Michigan, Georgia is 16, Pennsylvania [is] 19. Any one of them puts him over the top.” 

Trump won North Carolina in 2020, but lost to President Biden in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and narrowly in Georgia. 

Nationally, Vice President Harris leads Trump by 0.8 percent, 48.6 percent to 47.8 percent, according to the latest The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s aggregate of polls. 

Rove, who was deputy chief of staff under former President George W. Bush, said on Tuesday that “each side has a reason to believe they can do this because the race is so close.” 

He also cautioned that “little things” can have a major consequence for each campaign, pointing to the comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s remarks on Sunday at Madison Square Garden before Trump’s speech where he made jokes about Puerto Rico and Black people, after which he faced backlash from all sides. 

“For example, look, think about it, four percent of the population of the voters of Pennsylvania are Puerto Rican, how do you think they reacted today about the comment at the rally by the comic at Madison Square Garden on Sunday?” Rove said.

“I mean, this is how, little things can have a big impact in a race this close.”