Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 5 points in a Maine congressional district that could provide a critical electoral vote in November, according to a new poll that cuts against most predictions for the district.

The survey from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center released Wednesday showed Harris leading Trump in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. The lead is smaller than her lead in the entire state but is notable because of how Maine distributes its electoral votes. 

Maine is one of two states, along with Nebraska, that distributes its electoral votes by the winner of each of its congressional districts. The state has a total of four votes and awards two to the winner of the state as a whole and one to the winner of each of the two districts. 

The state overall and the 1st Congressional District lean more comfortably Democratic, but the 2nd District is up for grabs and voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 after having voted for former President Obama in 2008 and 2012. 

The district only provides one vote but could be key in what is expected to be a razor-thin margin determining the winner. 

The result from the poll is an improvement for Harris compared to the center’s poll last month that had Trump leading by 4 points. 

But Harris is still not the favorite to take the district’s vote. Most analyses of the district have considered it to be likely voting for Trump, and Decision Desk HQ rated the district as “Likely Republican” before its election model froze following President Biden’s departure from the race. 

Trump won the district by about 7 points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016. 

The poll also found Harris expanding her lead in the state overall to a much more comfortable margin than some polls suggested Biden had. She leads Trump by 17 points, 55 percent to 38 percent. 

Maine has mostly been a comfortably blue state at the presidential level, but Republicans began to talk about it being in play as Biden started to struggle in the polls. The center’s poll from last month after Harris joined the race had her up 8 points. 

The University of New Hampshire poll was conducted among 951 likely general election voters Aug. 15-19. The margin of error for the entire sample was 3.2 points, and 4.6 points for the 2nd District.