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Generic ballot polls

Disapproves have a 11.3% lead based on 1,382 polls.

Jul 16, 2024

Democrat

45.3%

Republican

44.9%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

Polling average unskewer

Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.

Dem. +0.4

Original Avg.

Rep. BiasNo BiasDem. Bias

Dem. +0.4

Adjusted Avg.

Reset

A bit of background... The generic ballot serves as a crucial predictor for the battle over control of the US House of Representatives, offering a snapshot of national party preference between Republicans and Democrats. Following a narrow Republican majority win in the 2022 midterms, this gauge provides insights into potential shifts in legislative power. It reflects the natural political environment of the nation as a whole, without considering specific candidates or politicians.

472 polls

Latest Poll: Mon, Jul 15, 1:48 PM EDT

Jul 10 – 11

954 LV

Marist College Poll/...
47.0%

Democrat

45.0%

Republican

+2 Democrat

Jul 8 – 10

1,442 RV

YouGov/The Economist
46.0%

Democrat

44.0%

Republican

+2 Democrat

Jul 8 – 9

1,370 RV

Emerson College Poll...
44.4%

Democrat

43.1%

Republican

+1 Democrat

Jul 2 – 4

2,067 LV

Data for Progress/Sp...
48.0%

Democrat

45.0%

Republican

+3 Democrat

Jul 2 – 3

1,500 LV

Cygnal
47.1%

Republican

43.3%

Democrat

+4 Republican

Jul 1 – 3

1,388 RV

YouGov/The Economist
44.0%

Democrat

44.0%

Republican

TIE

Jun 30 – Jul 3

1,500 RV

Fabrizio Lee/GBAO/Wa...
46.0%

Republican

43.0%

Democrat

+3 Republican

Jul 1 – 2

1,000 RV

NewsNation/Decision ...
44.0%

Republican

43.6%

Democrat

+0 Republican

Jun 30 – Jul 2

800 LV

OnMessage Inc./ Sena...
45.0%

Republican

44.0%

Democrat

+1 Republican

Jun 30 – Jul 1

869 LV

Florida Atlantic Uni...
47.0%

Democrat

44.0%

Republican

+3 Democrat

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

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