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Biden vs. Trump vs. RFK Jr.

Jul 16, 2024

Photograph of Trump

Trump

42.1%
Photograph of Biden

Biden

39.7%
Photograph of Kennedy

Kennedy

8.0%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

A bit of background... As voters have soured on Joe Biden and Donald Trump over the past four years, many have wondered whether third-party candidates will run stronger than in previous elections. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign introduces a compelling three-way contest against incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. This unique configuration tests the waters of American political allegiance, as voters consider a broader spectrum of options for the country's leadership, similar to in 2016.

231 polls

Latest Poll: Mon, Jul 15, 1:48 PM EDT

Jul 9 – 12

2,300 LV

Noble Predictive Ins...
43.0%

Trump

40.0%

Biden

7.0%

Kennedy

+3 Trump

Jul 10 – 11

1,174 RV

Marist College Poll/...
43.0%

Trump

42.0%

Biden

8.0%

Kennedy

+1 Trump

Jul 8 – 11

1,210 RV

Beacon Research/Shaw...
44.0%

Trump

41.0%

Biden

10.0%

Kennedy

+3 Trump

Jul 8 – 10

800 RV

Hart Research/Public...
40.0%

Trump

37.0%

Biden

10.0%

Kennedy

+3 Trump

Jul 8 – 10

1,440 RV

YouGov/The Economist
43.0%

Trump

40.0%

Biden

4.0%

Kennedy

+3 Trump

Jul 6 – 10

2,041 RV

Ipsos/ABC News/Washi...
43.0%

Trump

42.0%

Biden

9.0%

Kennedy

+1 Trump

Jul 9

1,500 RV

Redfield & Wilton St...
43.0%

Trump

42.0%

Biden

6.0%

Kennedy

+1 Trump

Jul 8 – 9

1,370 RV

Emerson College Poll...
43.7%

Trump

39.9%

Biden

6.1%

Kennedy

+4 Trump

Jul 2 – 8

7,729 RV

Pew Research Center
44.0%

Trump

40.0%

Biden

15.0%

Kennedy

+4 Trump

Jun 29 – Jul 8

4,347 RV

Lord Ashcroft Polls
41.0%

Biden

39.0%

Trump

9.0%

Kennedy

+2 Biden

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

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