Biden vs. Trump
Jun 26, 2024
Trump
45.0%
Biden
43.8%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Rep. +1.2
Original Avg.
Rep. +1.2
Adjusted Avg.
Reset
A bit of background... The 2024 national popular vote polling average between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is a significant indicator of the political landscape as the United States gears up for another presidential election. This matchup is a rematch of the 2020 Presidential Election, with Biden seeking to continue his leadership and Trump aiming to reclaim the presidency. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, flipping key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
755 polls
Latest Poll: Tue, Jun 25, 12:21 PM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22 – 24 | 10,159 RV | Morning Consult | 44.0%Trump 44.0%Biden | TIE |
| Jun 18 – 22 | 1,878 LV | YouGov/CBS News | 50.0%Trump 49.0%Biden | +1 Trump |
| Jun 6 – 22 | 2,029 LV | ActiVote | 51.6%Trump 48.4%Biden | +3 Trump |
| Jun 21 | 1,000 LV | Rasmussen Reports | 49.0%Trump 40.0%Biden | +9 Trump |
| Jun 19 – 21 | 4,000 RV | Morning Consult | 44.0%Trump 43.0%Biden | +1 Trump |
| Jun 16 – 18 | 4,000 RV | Morning Consult | 44.0%Biden 43.0%Trump | +1 Biden |
| Jun 15 – 18 | 1,095 RV | Beacon Research/Shaw... | 50.0%Biden 48.0%Trump | +2 Biden |
| Jun 15 – 17 | 10,142 RV | Morning Consult | 44.0%Biden 43.0%Trump | +1 Biden |
| Jun 12 – 14 | 4,000 RV | Morning Consult | 43.0%Trump 43.0%Biden | TIE |
| Jun 13 | 930 RV | Ipsos/Reuters | 41.0%Trump 39.0%Biden | +2 Trump |
+ More Polls
The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
