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Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

Biden vs. Trump

Jul 16, 2024

Photograph of Trump

Trump

44.8%
Photograph of Biden

Biden

43.1%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

Polling average unskewer

Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.

Rep. +1.7

Original Avg.

Rep. BiasNo BiasDem. Bias

Rep. +1.7

Adjusted Avg.

Reset

A bit of background... The 2024 national popular vote polling average between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is a significant indicator of the political landscape as the United States gears up for another presidential election. This matchup is a rematch of the 2020 Presidential Election, with Biden seeking to continue his leadership and Trump aiming to reclaim the presidency. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, flipping key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

805 polls

Latest Poll: Mon, Jul 15, 1:48 PM EDT

Jul 14 – 15

2,426 LV

3W Insights
46.5%

Trump

42.8%

Biden

+4 Trump

Jul 13 – 15

11,328 RV

Morning Consult
44.0%

Trump

42.0%

Biden

+2 Trump

Jul 9 – 14

4,616 LV

3W Insights
45.9%

Trump

42.7%

Biden

+3 Trump

Jul 10 – 12

4,000 RV

Morning Consult
44.0%

Trump

42.0%

Biden

+2 Trump

Jul 9 – 12

2,300 LV

Noble Predictive Ins...
46.0%

Trump

43.0%

Biden

+3 Trump

Jul 8 – 12

1,847 LV

Rasmussen Reports
49.0%

Trump

43.0%

Biden

+6 Trump

Jul 10 – 11

1,174 RV

Marist College Poll/...
50.0%

Biden

48.0%

Trump

+2 Biden

Jul 8 – 11

1,210 RV

Beacon Research/Shaw...
49.0%

Trump

48.0%

Biden

+1 Trump

Jul 8 – 10

800 RV

Hart Research/Public...
45.0%

Trump

43.0%

Biden

+2 Trump

Jul 6 – 10

2,041 RV

Ipsos/ABC News/Washi...
46.0%

Trump

46.0%

Biden

TIE

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

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